Happy Nowruz
March 19, 2023
نوروز ۱۴۰۳
March 27, 2024
Global oil demand is expected to grow by a robust 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025 to 106.21 million bpd, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said in a surprising early assessment that left the demand growth for 2024 unchanged from its previous report in December.
The healthy spurt in global oil demand growth next year will be driven by nearly 1.7-million-bpd growth in non-OECD countries, mainly in China, the Middle East, and India, the group said in its first monthly outlook report for 2024. In the current year, OPEC expected global oil demand to rise by 2.2 million bpd compared to 2023, unchanged from the group’s forecast last month.
Offering more transparency
Based on usual practice, OPEC was expected to release the outlook for 2025 in the second half of 2024. The outlook for 2024 was released in November last year. Explaining the rationale this year, OPEC said: “Bringing forward the publication of the 2025 forecast to the January 2024 MOMR issue is part of the continued commitment of the OPEC organization to offer more transparency and support for both consumers and producers.”
It said the exercise was also aimed at supporting “the continued commitment of the OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) to achieve and sustain a stable oil market, and to provide long-term guidance for the market”.
Contrasting guidance
The group’s guidance for 2025 is consistent with OPEC’s forecast in World Oil Outlook 2023 that oil demand will rise to 116 mb/d by 2045, and require investment totaling $14 trillion, or around $610 billion on average per year.
But that assessment is in contrast to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook in 2023, which predicted that global fossil fuel demand is set to peak by 2030. The IEA report showed global coal use entering a steep decline after 2030, while gas and oil use remained close to peak level for the next two decades.
